Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China
Identifieur interne : 000660 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000659; suivant : 000661Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China
Auteurs : Joseph T. Wu [République populaire de Chine] ; Kathy Leung [République populaire de Chine] ; Mary Bushman [États-Unis] ; Nishant Kishore [États-Unis] ; Rene Niehus [États-Unis] ; Pablo M. De Salazar [États-Unis] ; Benjamin J. Cowling [République populaire de Chine] ; Marc Lipsitch [États-Unis] ; Gabriel M. Leung [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Nature Medicine [ 1078-8956 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/s41591-020-0822-7
PubMed: NONE
PubMed Central: 7094929
Affiliations:
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Chan School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>Boston, MA USA</nlm:aff><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Boston</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Niehus, Rene" sort="Niehus, Rene" uniqKey="Niehus R" first="Rene" last="Niehus">Rene Niehus</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution>Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology,</institution><institution>Harvard T.H. 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Cowling</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000121742757</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.194645.b</institution-id><institution>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine,</institution><institution>The University of Hong Kong,</institution></institution-wrap>Hong Kong SAR, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Hong Kong SAR</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="Aff2"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">000000041936754X</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.38142.3c</institution-id><institution>Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology,</institution><institution>Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health,</institution></institution-wrap>Boston, MA USA</nlm:aff><country>États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Massachusetts</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Boston</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gabriel M" sort="Leung, Gabriel M" uniqKey="Leung G" first="Gabriel M." last="Leung">Gabriel M. Leung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="Aff1"><institution-wrap><institution-id institution-id-type="ISNI">0000000121742757</institution-id><institution-id institution-id-type="GRID">grid.194645.b</institution-id><institution>WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, LKS Faculty of Medicine,</institution><institution>The University of Hong Kong,</institution></institution-wrap>Hong Kong SAR, China</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea>Hong Kong SAR</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Nature Medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">1078-8956</idno><idno type="eISSN">1546-170X</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="Par1">As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death. Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4% (0.9–2.1%), which is substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naïve confirmed case fatality risk (2,169/48,557 = 4.5%) and the approximator<sup><xref ref-type="bibr" rid="CR1">1</xref></sup> of deaths/deaths + recoveries (2,169/2,169 + 17,572 = 11%) as of 29 February 2020. Compared to those aged 30–59 years, those aged below 30 and above 59 years were 0.6 (0.3–1.1) and 5.1 (4.2–6.1) times more likely to die after developing symptoms. The risk of symptomatic infection increased with age (for example, at ~4% per year among adults aged 30–60 years).</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ghani, A" uniqKey="Ghani A">A Ghani</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wong, Jy" uniqKey="Wong J">JY Wong</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yu, H" uniqKey="Yu H">H Yu</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wong, Jy" uniqKey="Wong J">JY Wong</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jia, N" uniqKey="Jia N">N Jia</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donnelly, Ca" uniqKey="Donnelly C">CA Donnelly</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gm" uniqKey="Leung G">GM Leung</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lau, Eh" uniqKey="Lau E">EH Lau</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Taubenberger, Jk" uniqKey="Taubenberger J">JK Taubenberger</name></author><author><name sortKey="Morens, Dm" uniqKey="Morens D">DM Morens</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Collins, Sd" uniqKey="Collins S">SD Collins</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Andreasen, V" uniqKey="Andreasen V">V Andreasen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Simonsen, L" uniqKey="Simonsen L">L Simonsen</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Donaldson, Lj" uniqKey="Donaldson L">LJ Donaldson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Oh, Md" uniqKey="Oh M">MD Oh</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wong, Jy" uniqKey="Wong J">JY Wong</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Abbad, A" uniqKey="Abbad A">A Abbad</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Backer, Ja" uniqKey="Backer J">JA Backer</name></author><author><name sortKey="Klinkenberg, D" uniqKey="Klinkenberg D">D Klinkenberg</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Massachusetts</li></region></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Wu, Joseph T" sort="Wu, Joseph T" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Joseph T." last="Wu">Joseph T. Wu</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Cowling, Benjamin J" sort="Cowling, Benjamin J" uniqKey="Cowling B" first="Benjamin J." last="Cowling">Benjamin J. Cowling</name><name sortKey="Leung, Gabriel M" sort="Leung, Gabriel M" uniqKey="Leung G" first="Gabriel M." last="Leung">Gabriel M. Leung</name><name sortKey="Leung, Kathy" sort="Leung, Kathy" uniqKey="Leung K" first="Kathy" last="Leung">Kathy Leung</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Massachusetts"><name sortKey="Bushman, Mary" sort="Bushman, Mary" uniqKey="Bushman M" first="Mary" last="Bushman">Mary Bushman</name></region><name sortKey="De Salazar, Pablo M" sort="De Salazar, Pablo M" uniqKey="De Salazar P" first="Pablo M." last="De Salazar">Pablo M. De Salazar</name><name sortKey="Kishore, Nishant" sort="Kishore, Nishant" uniqKey="Kishore N" first="Nishant" last="Kishore">Nishant Kishore</name><name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name><name sortKey="Niehus, Rene" sort="Niehus, Rene" uniqKey="Niehus R" first="Rene" last="Niehus">Rene Niehus</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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